Barcelona, February 4, 2025.-
- Contract rates increased by 2.8 points to 128.9, while spot rates remained stable at 123.9.
- Labour shortages (500,000 vacancies) and rising wages (+5% YoY) are pushing costs higher, despite a 11.7% drop in diesel prices.
- Nearshoring to Poland, Romania, and Türkiye is shifting transport demand.
- EU regulations (Eurovignette Directive, ETS2) will increase costs and pressure margins.
Regional Insights
Spain – France
📌 Madrid to Paris
- Contract rates +3.5% QoQ, spot rates +4.5% QoQ.
- Spanish retail demand slowed (-1.4% YoY), but manufacturing remains strong.
📌 Paris to Madrid
- Contract rates +3.1% QoQ, but spot rates fell 5.1% due to lower vehicle exports (-18.1% YoY).
Germany – Poland
📌 Warsaw to Duisburg
- Contract rates +2.3%, spot rates +3.3% QoQ.
- MAUT toll increases & CO2 surcharges are raising transport costs.
- Polish labour costs +16% YoY, 2nd highest in the EU.
France – UK
📌 UK to France
- Contract rates -8.2% QoQ, reflecting weak trade (-6.6% UK exports to France YoY).
- Diesel costs fell (-11.2% France, -9.8% UK), easing pressure on rates.
Italy Domestic Market
📌 Italy
- Contract rates +3.9 points, spot rates -10.0 points in December.
- Vehicle production below 500,000 in 2024 (-33% YoY), impacting freight demand.
✅ Cost Increases: CO2 pricing, labour shortages, toll hikes will pressure profit margins.
✅ Nearshoring Growth: Poland, Romania, Türkiye emerging as key logistics hubs.
✅ Consumer Demand Recovery: Expected to gradually support rate growth in H2 2025.
2025 Outlook & Strategic Considerations
More Information: Full Report
Transportation & Logistics Software 