The electrification of mobility accelerates and rushes the first official deadlines

Barcelona, March 3, 2021.- Bloomberg has published a report on the adoption of electric motors in different modes of transport, including by country: Looking beyond passenger cars, several ‘killer apps’ are emerging for electrification in the 2020s. Two- and three-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles, tuktuks and rickshaws) and municipal buses are already going electric quickly and accelerate further in the next five years, spreading beyond China. Delivery vans and ride-hailing vehicles are the next segments to cross the tipping point.

Some 30% of global two- and three-wheeler sales and 20% of the existing fleet are already electric. China accounts for the bulk of two-wheeler electrification to date, but sales are growing rapidly in markets like Taiwan, Vietnam and India. Supportive policies, rising manufacturer interest and rapidly improving economics will soon push two- and three-wheeler electrification significantly higher. Our e-bus forecast remains unchanged from last year, with e-buses comprisingover 67% of the global bus fleet in 2040. Electric buses do not fully take over the market. Diesel and eventually hydrogen fuel cell buses round out the rest of the fleet by 2040 in areas:

  • Where installing charging infrastructure is difficult
  • Where temperatures are extreme
  • Near industrial clusters where hydrogen production is being deployed
  • Where local incumbents favor such technology

Road freight demand continues to grow to 2040, but the growth is uneven between segments and countries. Small vans and trucks increase in importance, with demand rising more than 50% by 2040. In the U.S., Europe, China and India, growth will be even higher. In contrast, heavy-goods transport demand will grow much more in developing economies. 

Road freight demand continues to grow to 2040, but the growth is uneven between segments and countries. Small vans and trucks increase in importance, with demand rising more than 50% by 2040. In the U.S., Europe, China and India, growth will be even higher. In contrast, heavy-goods transport demand will grow much more in developing economies. 

Commercial EV adoption is driven by cities, as urbanization and e-commerce are leading to new efforts to reduce local pollution and improve the quality of living. In several large markets, more than one third of commercial vehicles on the road – of any size – serving urban applications are electric or fuel cell by 2040. The economics of this are already favorable for some use cases.

Electric vehicle adoption for urban and some regional duty cycles is faster than for the overall commercial vehicle market. Even in heavy-duty segments, EVs reach more than a third of sales in cities in the U.S., Europe, China and elsewhere by 2040 as many of these operate relatively short trips.

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